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FROM PROBABILITY TO ACTION

Automate the clear cases. Review the rest.

Evaluate Valen for ticket intent routing: how much work can you automate at an acceptable error rate?

Held-out replay

Rules are frozen on validation data. The observed test result is shown alongside.

11.5%automated
0.7%observed accepted error95% CI 0.1%–3.8%
88.5%sent to review

Accepted 147 / 1276 questions; 1 error. A validation target is not a guarantee for test or deployment.

BANKING77 · English · 77 candidate intents · 1276 test questions · retrospective public-test replay.

Automated coverage vs. error rate
Automated coverage vs. error rateGray: original. Blue: calibrated. Download the report for exact values.0%0%25%25%50%50%75%75%100%100%Selected rule: 11.5% coverage, 0.7% errorAutomated coverage
OriginalCalibrated
Stated probability vs. observed accuracy
Stated probability vs. observed accuracyGray: original. Blue: calibrated. Download the report for exact values.0%0%25%25%50%50%75%75%100%100%7 questions; 11.6% → 0.0%13 questions; 17.4% → 15.4%24 questions; 23.3% → 37.5%51 questions; 30.4% → 17.6%48 questions; 37.3% → 20.8%97 questions; 43.4% → 29.9%92 questions; 50.2% → 44.6%114 questions; 56.5% → 47.4%109 questions; 63.3% → 55.0%86 questions; 69.7% → 57.0%90 questions; 76.5% → 83.3%123 questions; 83.0% → 78.9%137 questions; 89.8% → 78.1%285 questions; 97.4% → 94.0%1 questions; 6.3% → 0.0%8 questions; 10.3% → 0.0%26 questions; 16.6% → 30.8%40 questions; 23.8% → 25.0%60 questions; 30.1% → 18.3%88 questions; 37.2% → 27.3%92 questions; 43.3% → 38.0%118 questions; 50.3% → 44.9%121 questions; 56.8% → 55.4%89 questions; 63.1% → 58.4%99 questions; 69.9% → 85.9%111 questions; 76.6% → 76.6%118 questions; 83.1% → 80.5%116 questions; 90.2% → 85.3%189 questions; 96.5% → 98.4%Stated probability
OriginalCalibratedDashed: ideal calibration
Why trust these numbers? Compare calibration and inspect the scope
Probability distribution: how many questions fall in each range?
Sample distribution of top candidate probabilitiesOriginal 0–7%: 0Calibrated 0–7%: 1Original 7–13%: 7Calibrated 7–13%: 8Original 13–20%: 13Calibrated 13–20%: 26Original 20–27%: 24Calibrated 20–27%: 40Original 27–33%: 51Calibrated 27–33%: 60Original 33–40%: 48Calibrated 33–40%: 88Original 40–47%: 97Calibrated 40–47%: 92Original 47–53%: 92Calibrated 47–53%: 118Original 53–60%: 114Calibrated 53–60%: 121Original 60–67%: 109Calibrated 60–67%: 89Original 67–73%: 86Calibrated 67–73%: 99Original 73–80%: 90Calibrated 73–80%: 111Original 80–87%: 123Calibrated 80–87%: 118Original 87–93%: 137Calibrated 87–93%: 116Original 93–100%: 285Calibrated 93–100%: 1890%100%

Top probability exactly 1: 0 original, 0 calibrated.

Same held-out test; lower is better except accuracy.
MetricOriginalCalibrated
ECE0.08190.0518
NLL1.35641.3240
Brier0.50620.4996
Accuracy63.5%63.5%

Valen-0.8B · c2c481fcb319 · 1276 test questions

BANKING77 · English · 77 candidate intents · retrospective public-test replay. Not a production or vision guarantee.

ECE uses 15 equal-width bins and top candidate probability. Error bars are pointwise 95% Wilson intervals; correlated questions can make them too narrow.

Full report JSON.gz · 551 KBStudy temperature artifactDataset sourceStudy protocolSelected routing policy

Downloaded parameters are bound to this historical model and recipe. Refit and validate for your own workflow.

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